The Premier League title race may be over, but the battle for Europe’s spots remains as competitive and exciting as ever, with as many as 13 teams in with a chance of qualifying.
Several factors combine to make it open. The Champions League and Europa League have grown since the start of the league stage, and there is a third European competition, the Champions League. The strength of the Premier League means that the English winner of any competition will increase the number of European clubs next season. The mid-table of the Premier League is also surprisingly organised.
Just seven points separate fifth-placed Liverpool and 13th-placed Bournemouth. It is the narrowest gap between fifth and 13th at the start of April since the Premier League’s first season in 1992-93, while just four points separate fifth-placed Sheffield Wednesday and 13th-placed Southampton. Meanwhile, just four points separate seventh and 13th, the second-lowest gap in Premier League history. League on this stage.
Nine English clubs played in Europe this season – six in the Champions League, two in the Europa League and one in the Conference League. There could be more next season. So, what are the chances?
Champions League
Two more Champions League places are up for grabs for the leagues whose teams performed best in Europe last season, based on Uefa’s complex points system. The Premier League is sure to get one of them (as it did last season) as five of the nine European participants are still in their competition: Arsenal and Liverpool in the Champions League, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa in the Europa League, and Crystal Palace in the Conference League.
There is also the possibility of two more Champions League places for English clubs, but that would require very good results in Europe and poor form at home from Liverpool and Aston Villa. They will need to win their European competition and finish outside the top five of the Premier League (assuming the top five qualify for the Champions League). If both do so, it will mean seven English teams in the Champions League next season. Nottingham Forest can also qualify for the Champions League by winning the Europa League.
Europa League
There are at least two places for English classes. If the top five teams in the Premier League qualify for the Champions League, the sixth-placed team and the winners of the FA Cup will be in the Europa League.
However, if Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea or Liverpool win the FA Cup – which looks like they can – and finish in a league position that would be enough to qualify for the Champions League or Europa League (so, the top six), their place in the Europa League will go to the next-highest Premier League group that does not qualify for Europe.
If, apart from the above, Liverpool or Villa do not win a European competition while finishing outside the top five, this Europa League place would go to the seventh-placed team in the Premier League. If Liverpool or Villa win Europe while finishing outside the top five, the eighth-placed team in the Premier League will qualify for the Europa League. If they both win their European competition and finish outside the top five, the eighth-placed teams and the ninth will qualify for the Europa League.
Meanwhile, if Crystal Palace win the League Cup while finishing outside the top six in the Premier League, they will enter the Europa League next season.
Covenant of Union
Manchester City earned a place in the Conference League by winning the League Cup, but will have to finish in the top six of the league for their place to go to a top-flight club that has not qualified for Europe.
Depending on who wins the FA Cup and how many more Champions League spots are gained by Liverpool or Villa, the team that finishes eighth, ninth or 10th in the Premier League can qualify for the Conference League.
So 11 English teams can play in Europe?
In short: yes. That would require Liverpool, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace to win their European competition while finishing outside the top five – for Liverpool and Villa – or the top six – for Palace. That would leave the 11-team division as follows: seven for the Champions League, three for the Europa League and one for the Champions League. It’s not very easy.
In fact, how many will do it?
Liverpool have no chance of winning the Champions League, they also have a chance of finishing in the top five. Aston Villa are favorites to win the Europa League but are less likely to finish outside the top five than Liverpool. Palace are favorites to win the Conference League, but there is still a chance they won’t win it.
With all this in mind, there is a possibility that there are no extra places available because the English teams have won their continental competition while finishing outside the Premier League qualification.
However, it is possible that five English teams will qualify for the Champions League and a place in the Europa League will go to the team that finishes seventh because the top-6 team wins the FA Cup.
That would mean that the teams that finish in the top eight of the Premier League this season will qualify for Europe. Here are the percentage chances of each team finishing in each position, based on the latest set of 10,000 simulations of the rest of Opta’s computer.
Brighton are the only team outside the top seven to come in eighth, doing so in 16.8% of those matches, while Brentford look good value to finish seventh.
Everton have a good chance of getting into Europe, while Fulham, Newcastle, Sunderland and even Bournemouth are not out of the race. Crystal Palace’s best hope of returning to Europe rests on winning the Conference League, but they also have a chance to finish in the top eight of the league.
All of these teams should go into the remainder of the season hoping that Liverpool and Aston Villa will find European glory as they fall down the field. If they both do that and Palace also win the Conference, most Premier League teams next season will also be competing in Europe.
This is an Opta Analyst article
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