Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell & BMW Open

Tennis betting tips: BMW Open & Barcelona Open

1pt win over Luciano Darderi at the BMW Open at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt ew Alejandro Tabilo at BMW Open at 50/1 (Overall)

0.5pt ew Cameron Norrie at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell at 50/1 (Overall)

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Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell

• Barcelona, ​​Spain (external clay)

Carlos Alcaraz left Monte Carlo on Sunday night hurt by his final defeat to Jannik Sinner.

We may have a favorite for the French Open, as we have a new world number.

Alcaraz immediately headed to Barcelona, ​​​​an event he has always supported despite the fact that it comes with three Claycourt Masters events – Madrid and Rome are still to come before the players arrive in Paris.

Indeed, it’s a good chance for the Spaniard to boost confidence – there’s no Sinner here and Alcaraz has been head and shoulders above the ATP tour for a long time, especially in this area.

However, unsurprisingly, the bookies don’t offer anything; Alcaraz is no bigger than 1/2 to win the title.

If you’re a fan of such prices, it’s a good game. Alcaraz won here in 2022 and 2023 and should do so again.

However, it’s not my job to get involved with such a bet, and I would point out that Alcaraz lost his last here 12 months ago (to Holger Rune) and I’d be surprised if the loss to Moetsalibe doesn’t play on his mind for a while.

The obvious thing to do here from a betting point of view is to look for every value on the other side of the draw.

It is led by Lorenzo Musetti but, as I wrote last week, he has struggled recently and Monte Carlo did not bring relief to the front with the first loss to Valentin Vacherot.

Musetti remains winless since the Australian Open with only two matches played during that period due to a hand injury.

If he can get back into the groove, Musetti is more than capable of making the finals here at 16/1 – and some bookies are still willing to offer half the odds on their terms, although Alcaraz is an exception.

However, I haven’t seen enough from the Italian of late to suggest he is ready to win four games at a pitch of this quality.

The parts seem to match. They make Arthur Fils the favorite to come in this category.

I can see why. The Frenchman has enjoyed a string of victories since returning to the tour in February – making the Doha final and the Miami semi (as reported in these pages) during that time.

However, he hasn’t played on clay since last year’s French Open, so it’s hard to tell if he’ll be hitting the court in a very different setting than he’s been playing in so far this year.

If it was double the price, I’d be impressed but 6/1 is too short.

I’d rather take a chance on a great deal here and choose to wait with it CAMERON NORRIE.

The British number one seems to be in a good part of the draw – the third quarter looks weak to me.

It is led by Karen Khachanov, the fourth seed, but has a losing record (7-8) in 2026 and has yet to win three consecutive matches.

The bookies have rising star Rafael Jodar as the favorite to make the semis – he recently won his maiden ATP title in Marrakech and the youngster is knocking on the door of the top 50.

He’s a talent, sure, but his recent title success means the stages are over for his price now. Jodar is the best 20s player this week.

I like Norrie, who is available at 50/1.

The Scotland international has performed well for Barcelona in the past, reaching three quarter-finals, but the dream gives him the chance to progress beyond that stage for the first time.

Player Stan Wawrinka is the first before a meeting with qualifier Ethan Quinn or Reilly Opelka. Jodar or Khachanov could follow in the last eight.

For me, this is a good way to go to the final stages for Norrie, who played well in Monte Carlo, getting out of the hands of Alex de Minaur in a three-way battle.

Unlike many Brits, Norrie has enjoyed a season on clay – his biggest success came on this stage in the Davis Cup when he stunned Spain’s Roberto Bautista Agut in 2018.

He has reached five ATP finals at this venue, winning two. He beat Mr. Alcaraz in one of those finals.

Last year, Norrie started his season after moving to clay. He was a semi-finalist in Geneva and reached the fourth round at Roland Garros.

Not a very confident choice but I believe Norrie is overpriced here in the 50s and, after that, deserves a little punt.

BMW Open

• Munich, Germany (external clay)

The main decision punters have to make this week is whether or not to oppose top seed and title favorite Alex Zverev.

The German has played his home game for years and has won three times, including last season. However, he also pitched and failed to win eight times, his overall win-loss record being 20-8.

This year’s edition comes off the back of a difficult week in Monte Carlo where Zverev made the semi-finals, but played two long matches to do so before losing in style to Jannik Sinner.

In particular, the last time Zverev made the semis in Monte Carlo, he lost his first match here by a wide margin.

It’s 11/5 for this year’s event, and, as you might have guessed, it’s not the price I’m most excited about.

Although Zverev is the team of the field, there are also four other members of the top 20 here and all the seeds are from the 32 of the world.

One of them, Francisco Cerundolo, is a powerful potter and quarter-final opponent.

However, it’s another player above half that I turn to, and that’s it LUCIANO DARDERI.

Perhaps it was a mistake to back him in Monte Carlo so soon after his semi-final in Marrakech given the change in altitude involved.

However, we’re back at high altitude this week – at the foot of the Alps, Munich is about 500m high, very similar to Marrakech.

The weather will be cooler – they’ve had snow here before, but that won’t be the case this year with temperatures in the mid-teens, not unlike Monte Carlo.

In short, conditions will be fast this week as the balls fly in the thin air that bites fast.

Along with his run in Marrakech, Darderi has won an ATP title at a high level this year, doing so on the clay of Santiago, so he has clearly shown a tendency towards this level.

Last year he made the last eight here before losing to the prolific Ben Shelton, but there are no players in his quarterback this season.

The Italian will open against Zhizhen Zhang, a player who is working in the background after a long injury, and Vit Kopriva or the national card Justin Engel to follow.

Neighbor Flavio Cobolli is the top seed in the division but his form has been poor since his win in Acapulco and he was well beaten by qualifier Alexander Blockx last week.

I think it’s a good dream for Darderi, although I also see the impression that he is shouting at the loser of the semi-final to Zverev.

That said, despite losing their previous meeting, which came two years ago and was at least competitive, with Darderi taking the opening spot at half-time.

At 14/1, I think he’s a better option than the short-priced favourite.

The bottom bracket is led by last year’s runner-up, Shelton, but also includes Joao Fonseca, who impressed in Monte Carlo last week before losing in the quarter-finals to Zverev.

On 9/1, I’m sure the Brazilian will have his supporters this week but the altitude switch could be a problem, not to mention a tricky dream.

He opens against ALEJANDRO TABILOwhich I feel would be worth agreeing to with a large outright price.

The Chilean is another proven high-profile player, having shown good form in the early months of 2026.

Tabilo won in Chengdu towards the end of last season and although it was a tough field, he has fared well on clay in Santiago in the past, reaching the final there two years ago.

Earlier this season, he returned to the quarter-finals of the event, while he was semi-finalist in Rio on clay this year.

Apparently, Tabilo and Fonseca have met at this stage this year, in Buenos Aires, where Chile won in three sets.

Last week in Monte Carlo, Tabilo came within a break to beat world number 13 Jiri Lehecka, so he is obviously playing well.

While there is obviously a chance that Fonseca will sleep first, I think the 50/1 price makes the punt a little risky.

The odds will collapse if Tabilo can repeat his victory two months ago and there seems to be a lot in his favour.

Posted at 11:42 BST on 12/04/26

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